Syrian World War Games

15 Feb

After the UN veto by Russia and China it is clear that the Syrian conflict has become a proxy war of western and eastern powers. Regarding the recent development in the Middle East and the Mediterranean countries it is clear that Russia and China fear the loss of power over the region. We present some perspectives on the countries involved.

The Russian perspective: After the downfall of the Lybian regime Russia lost a main customer of arms. The last country on the Mediterranean Sea that receives its arms from Russia is Syria. In addition Russia’s last naval port on the Mediterranean Sea is in Tartous. If Syria changes its loyalty and becomes a Western backed country, then the Russian fleet is only capable of accessing this important sea through Odessa. Further, an unstable Syria with a regional war in the Middle East increases the dependency of Europe on Russian oil.

The Chinese perspective: China’s main concern is to maintain a steady economical growth, which is strongly coupled to cheap oil. The region, and especially Iran, is one of the main suppliers of oil to China. Thus, a stable Middle East and especially a “war free” Iran is necessary for the sustainable development of China. Another issue is that European and American companies are denied to work in Iran and this opens many opportunities for Chinese investments in the energy sector in the region.

Both, China and Russia, are not willing to lose control over the Middle East and thus the Mediterranean Sea. China is steadily increasing its capabilities to conduct a real proxy war by building up its naval fleet. With the support of China and Russia as well as most of the autocratic regimes in the world, the Syrian regime will be able to survive for some time.

The American (and GGC) perspective: The main reason to intervene in Syria is to break the alliance between Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah. The US was able to convince the GCC that their main enemy is the Shiite led Iran. They believe that Iran’s nuclear capability could over power the GCC and become the only regional power in the region. However, the real concern is the safety of Israel and to maintain cheap oil coming in from the GCC. The GCC is already strongly supporting the armed uprising by providing money, weapons, and infrastructure to the opposition under the approval of the US and Israel.

The EU perspective: Some European countries consider them selfs global players and try to continue their effort in the region due to their historical role. However, the EU has been insignificant since the Cold War. It is not a secret that the EU is incapable of interfering military in any region in the world. However, many countries, especially in the Middle East, take their money with open arms.

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